NBA Reproductive Analysis Project
Josh Drummond
May 24, 2020
Champions: 1991, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998
Conference Titles: 1991, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998
Division Titles: 1975, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2011, 2012
What Drives A Team’s Success On The Court?
Our ability to score points in basketball is the single most defining factor in winning and losing. It may sound simple, but score more points than the opposition, you win. Success in basketball is driven purely through our Win/Loss record.
If we look at the two graphs above, you’ll see that we can clearly see a relationship between the desired ratings. (Higher for offensive, and lower for defensive). Our rating in offence/defence was 104.8/113.2 respectively.
Last season we finished with a losing record of 22 wins and 60 losses, the 27th best record in the league and the second worst offensively rated side. The most successful teams in 2018-19 all had stellar offensive ratings. Defensive rating, while not as important as its offensive counterpart, can also provide a strong indication of a team’s W-L record.
According to those figures, offensively we won as many games as we were expected, but underperformed comparing to our expected win rate based solely on defence. It’s easy to think, that because we won less than expected, the way to move forward and win, is to score and improve our offensive side. Scoring more points, takes the pressure off the defence and reduces our Net Rating closer to 0.
Each Basket Type Relating to Total Player Points
Points = 3-Point FG + 2-Point FG + Free Throw
Being able to identify which basket type plays a bigger role in basketball, its clear to see that a 3-Point basket is worth more, because if we relate to our previous comment.
More Points = More Wins
In the three graphs below, describe the relationship each type of basket has with the total points that player scored. If a player connects with 200 x 3 point baskets, the linear result is estimated approx 1400 points. When we compare that to a player making 200 x 2 point baskets, the estimated result is approx 750. That’s a large differential in any sense of the word. 82 game season and approx a 650 point difference, which is 8 points per game.
Considering most games are decided by under 5 points, that is a huge advantage if we can find players successfully making 3 point baskets. The clear observation here is finding efficient ball shooters, regardless if that is from beyond the 3 point arc or inside the paint or having the ability to get to the free throw line. Efficiency is key, as that’ll allow our team to rate higher offensively, which we have seen in previous graphs that a high offensive rating is directly linked to increasing our winning potential.
Current Player Performance Breakdown
I have broken down the competition in the next 3 particular graphs to show their Salary for the 2018-2019 season plotted alongside their 2018-2019 Points Per Game Average, their Rebounds Per Game Average and their Assists Per Game Average. . The graph has each position colour coordinated so we can identify particular player position requirements. However, it is important. To quickly breakdown what we want from each position in an easy to understand way.
Point Guard must be able to pass the ball to find open players for assists. As a basic rule, they themselves must have scoring potential. To find an elite ball user is important to create a better team balance.
Shooting Guard can play similar role to our Point Guard, however, he must be a good 3 point shooter. We need to be able to space out the defence to create easier shots outside, and open the lane on the inside.
Small Forward will be our versatile player, who can do everything and do it well. It will become obvious why this is important, but the Franchise Player of the Chicago Bulls will be a Small Forward.
Power Forward I believe is key needs to be able to score inside, and be able to bring down the rebounds defensively and offensively, and what is now becoming the trend in the NBA, our Power Forward will need to be able to put up and make 3 point baskets if required.
Centre dominate inside, our main defensive post and our rebounding power. Must block shots and get rebounds, otherwise, we’ll find a reliable smaller player and play small ball.
As you’ll see in the graphs, the dotted lines along the X-axis and Y-axis create 4 quadrants that divide the competition.
Performing above the average and paid under our affordability range.
Performing above the average and paid over our affordability range.
Performing under the average and paid under our affordability range.
Performing under the average and paid over our affordability range.
In wanting to find the best available player and be able to afford these 5 starting players, without blowing our budget, we’ll be focusing our attention to the first quandant performing above the average and paid under our affordability range.
Player Points Predictions by Position
Let’s break it down, position by position to allow us to see our positional scoring leaders and the predicted points each player will score next season. When we add in the salaries to the equation again, you’ll be able to identify clearly who the players we are going to be targeting are.
Point Guard
Clearly James Harden is the leader in not only the Point Guard Position, but as a star of the competition, however, this analysis allows us to identify players like Kemba Walker, D’Angelo Russell, Trae Young who can have big impacts at a fraction of James Harden’s cost.
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal had a breakout season last year and is now the premier Shooting Guard, but he comes at a cost. Young players who have stepped into the game and dominated consistently across 2-4 seasons do not command the same price tag as Bradley, their output may not be on the same level, but the cost margin to predicted output is beneficial to us rebuilding our starting 5.
Small Forward
The position most desirable by all teams. There aren’t enough Kevin Durant and Lebron James running around in the league, and is evident by this breakdown, the cheaper players are indeed a long way off the level of these league leaders. By playing the moneybag game across 3-4 starting positions, it allows us the opportunity to sign a Franchise Player, something that must be considered to improve our offensive rating.
Power Forward
Centres
Competition’s Elite Performers Broken Down By Predicted Points And Their Salary
Point Guard
Shooting Guard
Small Forward
Power Forward
Centres
Point Guard
Point Guard: Kemba Walker
We have chosen Kemba Walker, explain why here.
Shooting Guard
Shooting Guard: Donovan Mitchll
We have chosen Donovan Mitchell, explain why here.
Small Forward
Small Forward: Kevin Durant
We have chosen Kevin Durant, explain why here.
Power Forward
Power Forward: Julius Randle
We have chosen Julius Randle, explain why here.
Centre
Centre: Karl-Anthony Towns
We have chosen Karl-Anthony Towns, explain why here.